Trump may regret choosing JD Vance as his running mate, political scientists say (2024)

Four political scientists told Business Insider that Trump's camp had legitimate reasons to be worried.

Alberta's story in The Atlantic said President Joe Biden's exit from the presidential race had forced Trump's team to reset its strategy.

Initially, Trump's allies said they were confident in their campaign plan, which was designed to defeat Biden.

Campaign officials told The Atlantic that Trump's team chose Sen. JD Vance to try to capitalize on early success, saying the aim was to run up the margins of MAGA support in a "blowout" election rather than persuade swing voters.

Thomas Gift, director of University College London's Centre on US Politics, told BI that Trump's selection of Vance was "a confident, some might say too confident," decision.

"Doubling down on mobilizing the MAGA base for a candidate who already has the base eating out of the palm of his hand never seemed like the best tactical play," he said.

A lack of crossover appeal

Angelia R. Wilson, the author of "The Politics of Hate" and a professor of politics at the University of Manchester, agreed that Harris' likely replacement of Biden had exposed new weaknesses in the Trump-Vance ticket.

She noted that with Biden leading the Democratic ticket, Trump and Vance could effectively criticize Biden's age and competency.

But with Harris as the candidate, they need to focus on other topics.

Wilson suggested the Trump team would try to exploit divisions around race and gender, which, she said, is "going to lose them votes with suburban soccer moms," among other voters.

Colin Talbot, a professor emeritus of politics at the University of Manchester, told BI that he thought Trump's all-male ticket was at great risk of losing the "independent, middle-ground women's votes."

In recent days, a 2021 clip has resurfaced of Vance describing Harris as one of the "childless cat ladies" who is "miserable" with her life and who has no stake in the future of America because she has not had children.

(Harris has two stepchildren with her husband, Doug Emhoff.)

And in the debate over reproductive rights, Harris has been an outspoken pro-choice advocate, while Vance told a podcast in 2022 that he wanted to see abortion be made "illegal nationally."

Talbot said that Trump selected Vance when he thought he had the election "in the bag" but that now the "mistake" of not balancing the ticket, either ideologically or by gender, is in full view.

An awkward rally performance

According to Kevin Fahey, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Nottingham, there's another reason Trumpworld's reported second-guessing of Vance might not be unwarranted: his public-speaking abilities.

This election cycle has shown how one poor performance can significantly damage a candidate's reputation.

While Vance's first solo campaign rally in Virginia on Monday wasn't as disastrous or widely watched as Biden's debate performance, Fahey told BI it may have still revealed a weakness.

A joke about Diet Mountain Dew fell flat. Later, Vance stumbled over his speech and mumbled some nervous laughter. Democrats were quick to pounce on the awkward moment.

Further slipups at the microphone could undermine Vance's star power next to someone as skilled at firing up rally attendees as Trump.

"He doesn't have the charisma of somebody like Donald Trump," Fahey said.

Although speaking skills aren't everything, Fahey also noted that Vance doesn't have a lengthy legislative record to fall back on, nor any proof that can even outperform Trump in Ohio.

Beyond his loyalty to Trump, Fahey said, "Vance adds nothing to the Republican ticket."